As we weather the transition from autumn into winter, like many I have been preoccupied with the situation in the Middle East. The violence is not specifically related to the climate and environment of the Northeast United States (the subject of this newsletter), and yet—it is related to everything, and I think there are a few region-specific words to say, as we are still in fact part of the United States, a country which makes that far-off genocide1 possible.
American support includes that of most of the elected representatives of this reputationally liberal part of the country. Here, the Vermont delegation is technically slightly ahead of the curve, as two of its members have called for some form of ceasefire—not Bernie—but ceasefire is really the bare minimal demand, and calls for a ceasefire seem to have limited efficacy as the Biden administration shows no willingness to reign in the assault, and most of the US government endorses it.
What is happening in Palestine–Israel also shares a key ideological connection with the Northeast: the historical process and living reality of settler colonialism. Despite what some legacy publications say, settler colonialism has a clear meaning (one definition: “a system of oppression based on genocide and colonialism, that aims to displace a population of a nation… and replace it with a new settler population”) and Israeli settlers readily admit their agenda:
Despite Israel’s defenders’ attempts to do so, this sort of West-Bank-settler extremism cannot be meaningfully separated from the state’s existence as a whole. This fact doesn’t offer a realistic prescription for the future but it’s the truth. Political Zionism arose in the era of European nationalism and modern Israel’s forebears explicitly considered the settlement of the Levant a colonial project.
As Jonathan Katz writes in a useful essay on the long history of this situation, early hardline Zionist Ze’ev Jabotinsky “went on to compare himself and his fellow Zionists, favorably, to the conquistadors Cortés and Pizarro, as well as the ‘Pilgrim Fathers, the first real pioneers of North America.’ As for the Palestinian Arabs, on the other hand, [Jabotinsky] saw them as the analogs of the ‘Red Indians’ or ‘Redskin[s],’ who ‘feel at least the same instinctive jealous love of Palestine, as the old Aztecs felt for ancient Mexico, and the Sioux for their rolling Prairies.’ And just like the native peoples of the Americas, he was certain, they would fight ‘with the same ferocity against the good colonists as against the bad.’”
Meanwhile, we feel the direct impacts of this phase of the conflict—which has now killed nearly twenty thousand people in Gaza (probably more) and three hundred in the West Bank, and over a thousand in Israel—here in the Northeast: three Palestinian college students were shot in Burlington, Vermont around Thanksgiving, one of them—Hisham Awartani—now possibly paralyzed from the chest down. We will see more of this, like the shots fired at a temple in Albany (no victims) on the first night of Hannukah.
Perhaps the only bright spot in the United States, though of dubious comfort, is a widespread rejection of the assault on Gaza among average Americans. Polls show significant support in this country for a ceasefire—not exactly radical, but a notable shift from a few years back, and clearly ahead of the American government’s position.
This opposition is vocal and diverse: a December 2nd rally in Montpelier, Vermont featured speakers representing a wide coalition of groups from around the state—Students for Justice in Palestine, Jewish Voice for Peace, Cooperation Vermont, a newly formed group called Labor for Palestine, others—many of whom explicitly connected the ongoing violence in Gaza to the broader catastrophe we collectively face, to the ravages of capitalism, to racism against migrants, to the ecological emergency, and so on.
Circling back to the ecological connection, let’s not forget (as COP28 meets this week, somewhat ridiculously, in the United Arab Emirates) that this spiraling assault on Gaza happens amidst the accelerating reality of climate collapse. As these crises and others intersect and compound each other, things will get more grim.
In that spirit, I encourage folks in the Northeast and farther to do what you can about this immediate situation—call your reps, attend rallies, participate in boycotts, etc. It is critical to again emphasize that what’s happening in Gaza is in significant part an American issue, an outgrowth of American policy, and that if Biden and Blinken and the rest of them wanted to they could stop the violence. The longer they don’t, the worse it will get, and as in the case of America’s many other imperial misadventures—in Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, and so many before—the effects will continue to rebound back here, and Americans will pay our share for the hell to which Palestinians are now being subjected.
FURTHER READING
On seasonal changes… It is firmly turning to winter here in central Vermont’s USDA zone 4b. Sorry, hold on. It has felt like winter for days—we just had a night close to 0° F, and we’ve cumulatively seen maybe a foot of snow—but this weekend it’s supposed to hit 50° F with about two inches of rain. I expect most of that now-frozen snow will melt. Also: we’re no longer in zone 4b. In November the USDA updated the agricultural hardiness maps, and we are now in zone 5a. The agency last did this in 2012—which is itself pretty disturbing, given these “zones” theoretically developed over millions or at least thousands of years and are now changing annually.
Relatedly, the Northeast Regional Climate Center provides some info from the Fifth National Climate Assessment, released in November. It tells us—surprise!—the Northeast is getting warmer and wetter, and the Atlantic, particularly the Gulf of Maine, is warming rapidly.
Precipitation has increased annually and in all seasons… The Northeast is expected to see more precipitation under all global warming scenarios.
The Northeast has seen a roughly 60% increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation, the largest increase of all the U.S. regions. The intensity of these events has also increased. This trend, along with an increased risk of flooding, is also expected to continue.
On predicting winter… According to NOAA, the presence of El Niño suggests a warmer-than-average winter for the entire Northeast, most pronounced in Northern New England, with average precipitation for most of the region (slightly above average further south). Seems reasonable to me but I wouldn’t make any bets. Recall that last year’s extremely warm winter featured the coldest wind chill ever recorded on Earth on New Hampshire’s Mount Washington.
NOAA’s isn’t the only forecast: The Weather Channel, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, and several other sources provide their own predictions. For those in Vermont and northern New York, find a good write-up on all this at Matt’s Weather Rapport, an invaluable source for weather and climate news for Vermont and surrounding areas.
While it’s early, the predictions for next year are intense. Here’s NOAA’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast for next summer, via meteorologist Ben Noll:
On the (north)easternmost American county… This summer I traveled to the far-eastern tip of Maine, to Washington County, a part of this region that happened to spend more time in the “hurricane cone of uncertainty” than anywhere else in America in 2023. I was there to hike the Cutler Coast, which I wrote briefly about in the (print-only) issue four of Trails Magazine. It’s an impressive independent publication, with hiking and backpacking stories from all over the world; consider picking up a copy.
Speaking of the coast, an under-shared study from October suggests West Antarctic ice-shelf melting is irreversible even if 1.5° C climate targets are met—which they obviously won’t be. This melting would lead to a mean 5.3 meters (over 17 feet) of sea level rise globally. Gonna need a bigger seawall!
On alternatives… If you did not catch the last newsletter, I interviewed a Northeast homesteader who goes by
. We discussed climate breakdown, eco-socialism, permaculture, and much more. You can read the interview here. One answer, on visions of the future:I do think that—this is kind of the duality of collapse—on the one hand we’re very likely headed for a system change in really bad circumstances, circumstances that are not of our choosing necessarily, that do not involve a lot of planning or mitigation. Things are already coming at us in a way that’s causing mass suffering. And that is obviously a terrible tragedy.
On the other hand, it is creating the circumstances for system change, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. But either way, it’s a very rare thing, and it’s a very hard thing to engineer. So the fact that we are on the precipice of a global system change creates a lot of opportunity. I think if eco-socialists and other people who envision a different and better kind of world in the future are willing to grasp that opportunity, we have a historic moment, where we can shape what can come next, by struggling for it now. And that can look like a world with a great deal more joy if we want it to, even with all of the effects that we will experience from climate collapse.
Don’t really want to quibble over the word: the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” I think in part pretty well covers even a cursory view of the ongoing assault on Gaza but you can read about the particularities of these bloody defined acts at the link above if you’re unconvinced (e.g., “imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group”). And don’t take my opinion at face value: read the genocide researcher who calls this a “textbook case of genocide”; consider recent warnings from the UN; read +972 Magazine on how Israel knows exactly how many casualties each bomb will produce; look at the systematic obliteration of Gazan cultural sites; consider Netanyahu’s plan to “thin out” the population of Gaza and push residents into other countries; etc etc. It’s happening in plain sight. That this is carried out by a state whose founding (and continued existence) is justified specifically on the historical fact of Jewish genocide makes the situation especially horrific but it doesn’t change the reality.